Verification of selected methods of body height prediction for male and female pupils on the example of students of the Upper Secondary School Complex No. 2 in Dąbrowa Tarnowska, Poland

Patryk Orwat; Ryszard Żarów

doi:10.55225/hppa.646

Authors

Patryk Orwat University of Applied Sciences in Tarnow, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Tarnow, Poland https://orcid.org/0009-0006-1689-5701
Ryszard Żarów University of Physical Culture in Kraków, Faculty of Physical Education and Sport, Department of Anthropology, Kraków, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5006-0798

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55225/hppa.646

Keywords:

body height prediction, Roche-Wainer-Thissen Method, Khamis-Roche Method, Żarów Method, school children, adolescents

Abstract

Aim: The aim of the study was to assess the magnitude of error in the prediction of adult body height of male and female pupils from the Upper Secondary School Complex No. 2 in Dąbrowa Tarnowska using the Roche-Wainer-Thissen, Khamis-Roche and Żarów methods.

Material and methods: Data on the height and weight of 101 18-year-old pupils (54 female pupils and 47 male pupils), as well as parental mean body height, were used in the study. The pupils’ height and weight data came from screening tests performed at 6.5, 10 and 12 years of age by nurses and school hygienists, while the data on parents' height was obtained through written notes provided by the students.

Results: An evaluation of the prognostic methods carried out showed differences in prognostic performance depending on the method, the age of the predicted body height and gender. An analysis of the distribution of the absolute error of prognosis at the age of 10 showed that as many as 71% of all prognoses showed an error of less than 3 cm in relation to the actual body height at age 18, which should be considered a very good result in clinical or school practice setting.

Conclusion: Based on the analysis of the results, it was found that models based on data from the ages of 10 to 12 years provided the highest accuracy for predicting adult body height. The Żarów Model for male pupils and the Khamis-Roche Model for female pupils show the lowest mean prediction error. The models are the most accurate for individuals with a typical developmental trajectory, and their performance decreases in extreme cases (very tall and very short children).

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Żarów R. Prognozowanie dorosłej wysokości ciała chłopców: model własny i analiza porównawcza innych metod. Kraków: Wydawnictwo AWF; 2001. Google Scholar

Kopczyńska-Sikorska J, Mięsowicz I. Zastosowanie metody RWT do przewidywania ostatecznej wysokości ciała chłopców z prostym niedoborem wzrostu. Probl Med Wieku Rozw. 1982;11:45-50. Google Scholar

Kułaga Z, Różdżyńska-Świątkowska A, Grajda A i in. Siatki centylowe dla oceny wzrastania i stanu odżywiania polskich dzieci i młodzieży od urodzenia do 18 roku życia. Stand Med Pediatr. 2015;12:119-135. Google Scholar

Suliga E. Charakterystyka procesu wzrastania dzieci z prostym niedoborem wysokości ciała. In: Jopkiewicz A, ed. Auksologia a promocja zdrowia. Kielce: KTN; 1997:203-213. Google Scholar

Woynarowska B, Palczewska I, Oblacińska A. Standardy WHO rozwoju fizycznego dzieci w wieku 0–5 lat. Siatki centylowe długości/wysokości i masy ciała, wskaźniki masy ciała BMI i obwodu głowy. Med Wieku Rozw. 2012;16(3):232-239. Google Scholar

Szopa J, Mleczko E, Żak S. Podstawy antropomotoryki. Warszawa–Kraków: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN; 2000. Google Scholar

Kopczyński M, Siniarska A, eds. Budowa fizyczna człowieka na ziemiach polskich wczoraj i dziś. Warszawa: Muzeum Historii Polski; 2017. Google Scholar

Malina RM, Bouchard C, Bar-Or O. Growth, Maturation, and Physical Activity. Leeds: Human Kinetics; 2004. Google Scholar

Łaska-Mierzejewska T. Accuracy of adult height prediction. Rocznik Nauk. 1992;2:187-207. Google Scholar

Milicerowa H. Budowa somatyczna jako kryterium selekcji sportowej. Warszawa: Polski Komitet Olimpijski; 1973. Google Scholar

Roche AF, Thissen D, Wainer H. The RWT method for the prediction of adult stature. Pediatrics. 1975;56(6):1027-1033. Google Scholar

Khamis HJ, Roche AF. Predicting adult stature without skeletal age: The Khamis-Roche Method. Pediatrics. 1994;94(4):504-507. Google Scholar

WHO. Physical status: The use and interpretation of anthropometry. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1995. Google Scholar

WHO. Child Growth Standards: Length/height forage, weight for age, weight for length, weight for height and body mass index for age: Methods and development. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2006. Google Scholar

Żarów R. Analiza dorastania wysokości ciała chłopców. Wych Fiz Sport. 1995;4:11-18. Google Scholar

Żarów R. Metody prognozowania dorosłej wysokości ciała. In: Chrzanowska M, Gołąb S, eds. Przewodnik do ćwiczeń z antropologii. Kraków: Wydawnictwo AWF; 2014:68-87. Google Scholar

Jodkowska M, Woynarowska B, eds. Testy przesiewowe u dzieci i młodzieży w wieku szkolnym. Warszawa: Instytut Matki i Dziecka, Zakład Medycyny Szkolnej; 2002. Google Scholar

Kaczmarek M, Wolański N. Rozwój biologiczny człowieka: od poczęcia do śmierci. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN; 2018. Google Scholar

Malinowski A, ed. Antropologia fizyczna. Warszawa–Poznań: PWN; 1980. Google Scholar

Niedźwiecka Z., Łaska-Mierzejewska T. Prevision de la taille adulte: comparaison de l’exactitude de la prevision staturale etablie selon les methodes de Milicer, TW2 et RWT. Cahiers d’Anthropologie et Biometrie Humaine. 1996;14(3-4):559-566. Google Scholar

Żarów R. Ocena błędu prognozy dorosłej wysokości ciała dziewcząt według różnych metod przewidywania. Wych Fiz Sport. 1991;1:61-71. Google Scholar

Mlakar M, Gradišek A, Luštrek M, Jurak G, Sorić, M, Leskošek B, Starc G. Adult height prediction using the growth curve comparison method. PLoS One. 2023;18(2):1-13. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281960. Google Scholar

Pineau JC. Longitudinal growth of stature in boys according to age and puberty. Am J Hum Biol. 2023;35(6):1-7. doi: 10.1002/ajhb.23877. Google Scholar

Chen L, Fan X, Mao K, Tolba A, Alqahtani F., Ahmed AM. Study of multidimensional and high-precision height model of youth based on multilayer perceptron. Comput Intell Neurosci. 2022;1:1-11.doi: 10.1155/2022/7843455. Google Scholar